Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Expectation of both partners - Chinese and European

Entering a Chinese market is having a one challenge inside: What is a real value of international brand for Chinese producer once he already has his own brand, that is selling good on Chinese market?

1. you need to confirm, that sales on your partner are real. Sometimes, following the numbering problem between China and Europe (China talks in 10.000, we talk in 1.000 unit), your partner will easily change one million with 10 million. And, of course, if somebody is selling 10 million USD a year or 1 million USD is a huge change. Especially, if he promise you to sell 1 million.

2. you need to ask the internet sales provider to confirm, that sales are real. On sites like taobao and tmall you can see the sales of last month. That is useful. And than you have sites like JD, VIP, Amazon, where these information need to e also observed.

3. you need to confirm the margin, that is made. For example the same products, different quality standarts (in terms of small % of quality), different marketing (what really matters), brand anticipation and Chinese understanding of market will make a huge change. Let's focus on a real example. An children rocking horse with almost same quality and same producer can be by a good marketing, international brand and know-how on a Chinese market be sold instead of 120 RMB for 400 RMB. Amount of sales is also different. Chinese will be in 3000 a month, international one in amount of 300 a month.

4. initial investment. Once we purchase a goods, where we know the quality (as we do it for 20 years) and the price, we need to be able to touch local costs. We were told, that a manager can earn 300.000 RMB = 40.000 EUR a year in China. That needs to be confirmed. If we compare to normal worker in the office, than costs are significantly different. Normal worker has around 6.000 RMB a month = 72.000 RMB a year (or 80.000 with bonuses).

5. initial investment in terms of amount of products purchased. Obviously we need to be sure, that it can be sold in the amounts, that were orders. And also a rules of MOQ come in the question. It is much harder to start with 1.000s of pieces of something you are not sure, or have no experience to sell.

6. protection of your brand on a Chinese market. That issue is solved by a local registration authority and we were told, that sales on Tmall can not done, unless you have registered your brand in China. Whole process can take up to one year and trust me, it may take even longer.

7. We are informed, that a registration on Tmall will costs us 50.000 EUR as an deposit. That needs to be confirmed, as this amount of money will leave our pockets and once we sale may not return. Also may not return once we finish to sale :)

8. Setting up a rules, what will happen, if the sales are not according the plan. Currently it is described, that a sales of 1 MM USD a year needs a 500.000 USD investment in beginning. Profit will be obtained not the first, but maybe second year. This will be downsized, as it is hard for us to invest in such a long term return expectation with small control over investment.

money to put in INITIAL FIRST YEAR
   
   
money inside    
Tmall store xx €  
office rent xx €  
people operation xx € xx €
product developmet (design - people) xx € xx €
marketing position of brand xx € xx €
marketing (promotion, photography, webside) xx € xx €
logistic costs for sales (pay to carrier) xx € xx €
fixed costs xx € xx €



   
purchase of goods xx € xx €
goods we have xx € xx €
sales its value of purchase 0 € xx €
sales 0 € 790 000 €
sales cash xx € xx €

Saturday, October 11, 2014

EUSINO advisory

On Friday I did visit the BIC in Pilsen with very negative outcome - for funding on investment. Unfortunately they have no experience with China - EU relationship and many of my questions very answered negative. I am very sure, this is a main problem, that really hard working people in our county have a suffering way to succeed.

But I will use, for sure European enterprise network. This is very useful. You can contact Miroslava Skrziszowská [m.skrz@bic.cz] for further info, if you need help. She is smiling and willing to help.


But all bad is good for something. I did find a great webpage .... http://www.eusmecentre.org.cn/, that is offering just, what everybody, who wants to invest in China wants. I did register my company for various reasons. They help with export from Europe to China (Milk, Wine .... name it), they help with investment in China. Only problem I see now, they are in Beijing. Beijing a good place for political decisions. Not good for business. We separate China in Beijing - politics, Shanghai - finance, Hanzghou - Internet and It, Shenzhen - It, Hong Kong - international law, ... But we never expect Beijing to be a capital for finance and investment.

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Meeting with EUROPEAN ENTERPRISE NETWORK - PLZEN

Today we had a meeting with local EEN contact, BIC in Plzen.
The lady was in little shock, how many ideas we did develop and how much services we need from her. Unfortunately, she could be better prepared. For EU-CHINA cooperation, there are various models:

a) List of companies is the link, where we can find a suitable contact to make business in Europe and in China ... very good and looks very interesting
b) H2020 ... is a program for SME to cooperate in R&D and others between each other and in China .... we will dicover more
c) How to understand EU ... is a link from EU commision to EU funding
d) IPR China EU ... is an organisation, that knows about real opportunities in China and how to protect your right in terms of brand and property right
e) Understanding CHINA ... is an EU Commision led organisation, that is in charge of communication
f) Sample JV contract ... is usefull for German - Sino Joint ventures

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Beneish's M-score for earnings manipulation

To detect the probability of manipulation with you P&L and Balance sheet in company.
Banks and investors can use this statistical model to prepare them for higher risks in investment.

Calculate:
TATA = ( Net income - Cash flow from operations ) / Total assets
DSRI = Receivables / Sales
SGI = Sales
AQI = (Fixed assets in current year - Property, plant and equipment) / Total assets
LVGI = Total Liabilities / Total Assets
SGAI = Selling, general and administrative expenses / Income
GMI = Gross profit / Sales
DEPI = Depreciation / (Depreciation + property, plant and equipment)

BENISH M-SCORE FOR EARNINGS MANIPULATION
M = 4,84 - 4,679 x TATA current year - 0,92 x DSRI current year / DSRI previous year - 0,892 x SQI current year / SGI previous year - 0,404 x AQI current year / AQI previous year + 0,327 x LVGI current year/LVGI previous year + 0,172 x SGAI current year / SGAI previous year - 0,528 x GMI previous year / GMI current year - 0,115 x DEPI previous year / DEPI current year

M>2,22 ... lower manipulation
M betweeen 1,78 to 2,22 .... moderate manipulation
M lower than 1,78 ... higher manipulation