2026-07-26 Quartz and artificial intelligence

Let's focus on three different ways to attract money.

A) by finding a deeper solution / new application using the data....inductive approach 

B) by looking at the way other people/business attract money....comparison approach 

C) by understanding what is behind the value creation and extra money or other assets from the process....deductive approach.

A) Looking at the process of artificial intelligence as a mathematical problem that needs to be resolved -> that results in hiring mathematicians. You look into a group of the most clever or mathematically and statistically advanced people - quants. You select those that are overperforming. People with experience in the field that can apply modeling to the issues selected, look for means, variability of the values, continuous or non-continuous variables, cross-model implications. You try to discover the universal truth to be able to be first in finding the money. And amazing results can and will be achieved. Many times those consume a lot of tokens, as data has to be analyzed and compared. Even though there is so much data involved, I would argue this is more of an inductive approach. As you look for a sum of individual truths that work together, as a group. You do not really understand what is behind the data; you focus on the data itself. And if analyzing those will give you the truth you seek....you have achieved the goal. It is like technical analysis on the stock exchange. It is important, and it finds patterns. 

B) Comparison approach. Even though this looks so simple, some people would argue that this is the hardest one. It is also because it is the historically most important. Almost like Darwin's theory... not the strongest, but to make sure you are not the weakest. I saw people spending their lifetime looking at others, working hard, and achieving good results. Socializing is very important in this approach. A small piece of advice: a group meeting will make you satisfied for months to come. It works perfectly, as this is human-based. In the end, it does not matter if statistics or knowledge were right. What matters is if your product got sold and if you got paid. This approach builds strongly on business associations, seminars, fixers, social clubs, connections, and family. Traditionally, it is seen in conservative business lines or in conservative countries. I would argue that the closer the country or society is to foreigners, the more keen it is on comparison and potentially an inductive approach. But this is not an absolute truth. I can imagine that after a point of liberalism, you face the same issue. Society is too free, too random, to not be aware of cause and effect. It might even push towards the inductive approach. 

C) Deductive approach in money seeking. This approach is a combination of universal truths in making business and particular problems happening in application of those truths. This approach is social, but not too much. It needs a distance; otherwise, the resources spent will outweigh benefits. Problems or signaling is important here, too. We do care about the so-called "raised eyebrow". If done in reality or implied. Building a negative model in a deductive approach is many times more important than the model itself. The reason is that once a negative model is not developed and maintained throughout the life of the project, it faces challenges. People do not like to see others succeed in the things they do years later. It is ok if you are weird. If you are a "mathematical or statistical genius". But creating a lot of money by seeing what was there all the time.... that does not feel right, almost like cheating. 

Let's return to artificial intelligence. And where did we, as appliers of the current stage of development, get to? Working with different teams at Google or Facebook, I could observe... solution developed in dark rooms full of whiteboards... solution A) is seen as the current way forward. Is that what really will make a difference in the foreseeable future? I would argue that not.

Let's listen to my reasoning. We have got where we are, as society, because we have calculated our path forward. We have applied statistical models to our lives. We made trains faster, airplanes fly, and accommodation affordable. From 1850 and the steam engine til 2025. 175 years of engineering. Quants in different stages of development. We spent billions to save 40 mins of travel time between London and Paris. And it got us so far. We invented computers and cell phones. Quantum computing is what fascinates us. Not because we know how the computer got the answer, but because that quantum computer got the answer we were not able to compute.

Maybe 2026 is a year we ask ourselves the question: where is money or value generated? Is it in being faster, or enjoying the journey? Is it about living longer, or being happy in that long life?

Maybe the bigger task is to resolve it to seek a simple question. Which way do we create value because the user is positively surprised? Where the user is excited to log back into the application. It is not repeatedly reminded to change password. His information is not sold to bug him even more. Look at Google and its emails. Do you think we all get more tired because Google is selling the data about us to people that do not care what to push us to sell. Important is revenue; where is it coming from...who cares? 

And if you buy any product from the link you received by email...will you now be targeted better? Maybe even receive some positive feedback and have less terrible services or goods sold to you? On the contrary...you will get targeted even more. As if they caught you once! They sense there is blood in the water. And then those internet giants are surprised if users use the app less and less. 

Did they ask themselves... did I create something that the customer used and brought him more happiness, more money, or more value? Did I resolve the issue? 

I am sure not.

I believe the next era of artificial intelligence is in seeking value added created for the user. It is less modeling and more understanding, less blaming and more contributing. I see less working from home with the idea of distancing IT teams from users. In stopping the "integer" definition for user names. 

Imagine how far we have come! We let the IT department limit the customer name by an "integer" definition. This 1970s variable does not allow the use of any special characters in the name. So in the beginning, when our user is in the process of creation, when the founder decided to name the company or bring a new life to this world...we let IT say...I do not care! Are you Chinese? I do not care. Are you German? I do not care. Are you a son of Elon Musk? IT just doesn't care. You do not fit in the box of 24+ characters.

And we learn the solution is not in averages. Think about the way we measure time. I have observed at least three different ways of announcing to users the opening hours for McDonald's.

In the US, it would be from 03:00 pm till 01:00 am. On the European continent, it will be from 15:00 till 01:00, and in Japan? From 15:00 till 25:00. What is the average here? 

This is why I am a strong proponent of 2025 - 2100 to be about deduction. Understanding where the differences are and what makes the user more valuable. And define what that value is and how to indirectly measure it.

It is the same for a hotel booking. I pay for a room at $125. How was I satisfied with the stay and why? How is my overall experience measured? Do I receive 20 questions with 10 different options? Does everyone measure satisfaction the same? And does satisfaction mean the same when I am 25 and 55? And how does the hotel communicate with me during the process of giving feedback? Is it always that the sale matters? Or is it actually what we should care about is a second sale?

The situation also applies to the hiring process. If HR receives 100 applications for 2 openings... what happens to the 98 candidates who were not hired? Do they reapply for next openings? Or does our HR burn 98 potential candidates that most likely will enter the business we are in anyway? As suppliers, as customers, as regulators? 

I believe HR should make us, people, closer, not for the purpose of computation, but for the purpose of understanding where something positive happens. Not to be 30 mins faster between London and Paris, but to look forward to the train journey even if it is 2 hours longer. 

I do not believe in quants for the next 100 years. I believe in us, in people. 

2026-04-01 Credit Cards balance and bank

Having an unpaid credit card balance often results in a statement: "I owe money to the bank, but they can afford it". I will argue that it is not what caused the balance to be as high. Let's look at a bank statement and discover where the current balance comes from. Are they new shoes, groceries, travel, restaurants... what are the % of the things bought? 

Now let's think about spending a little more. Forget about buying less or of lesser quality. This is not a choice I am taking about. Multiple times, I have found that the food quality or pricing does not meet my expectations. Grocery stores overcharge for items on promotion. We are being pushed by marketing campaigns to buy things we need, but at prices that don't make sense. 

Let's look at some tricks our grocery stores use:

a) pushing us to buy low-quality bread or overpriced bread that becomes bad really fast. It costs around 0.5 USD to make a loaf of bread at home. So why do they charge $3 or even $5 for the same thing? And do not forget that the lack of bread, rice, or milk is the first thing that pushes us to go to the grocery store. Get your own bakery and reduce at least one grocery store visit every 3 months!

b) Restaurants do not offer the luxury as they used to! We see tired faces working extended hours to serve us frozen food. Avoid, avoid, avoid.

c) Having an email with Google or other platforms puts our email on a list for email campaigns. Even if you unsubscribe, you will always get a new email. It is time to say no to those providers.

d) Not moving our balance on the payment plan! This is a big one. Call the bank and get the balance on the payment plan. Decrease the available balance on the credit card now!

Decrease the tempting. We are living in a free country with salaries that people around the world hope to have. Lets start saving.

2025-10-12 Fraud - opportunity & resolution

Company fraud can be perpetrated by external parties, internal employees, competitors, shareholders, directors, or even infiltrate the business through its IT systems. The fraud committed by shareholders is one of the lesser-discussed types of fraud.

It is universally understood that directors, managers, and employees shall be interested in the well-being of the company. What about shareholders? It might be self-evident that it is in their interest to increase the valuation of the company they invested in. Is it always the case? What about "Phoenix company"?

"Phoenix company" is understood as a company receiving all the assets of the original company, all the know-how, and even the good employees. Leaving the holders of original company liabilities in a weak position to receive the repayment of the money due. Few shareholders see themselves as the ultimate holders of the company, as someone who can make the final decision. It is not true. It causes market disruption, it makes employees and suppliers surprised, and, above all, it is an attempt that has similarities with fraud.

The company is built with a vision of protection. With a vision of providing value to the market and to the stakeholders

2024-09-30 Fraud, not as intention to misuse the data

Fraud in lending does not always have to be connected to people stealing the IDs or personal information. It is also connected to consumers that lend the money with no willigness to pay it back. Thst willingness might be initial or changing in time as they keep lending money.

I identify following things inflencing the willingness and amount of protection people build in lending:

a) willingness decrease due to financial situation that change rapidly to bad to be good again

b) willingness decrease due to advise by friend, attorney or any 2nd party connected to consumer

c) willingness decrease due to advice on social media

d) willingness decrease due to intiention to screw the world, as consumer had been screwed

e) willingness decrease due to secondary cash-flow issues

f) willingness decrease due to bad quality of underlying asset or mistreatment of the underlying asset

g) willingness decrease due to bad insurance policy or insurance making additional issues to be claimed

h) willingness decrease due to misunderstanding of the loan position by family members in the process of probste

i) willingness decrease due to disputes and other action done by consumer to avoid responsibility 

k) willingness decrease due to external position of the consumer and his disrespect to financial institution

All a)...k) can be identified and dealt differently. They are also important once the case is presented to the legal action, if mecesarry. It is not always to approach the consumer with force, as many of those situations are easy to be resolved in respectful manner.

If a financial institution has a tool to identify on which stage the consumer is and starts to pro-actively educate the consumer we have a great way how to decrease the amount of BK, amount of NPL, manage cash-flow amd liquidity of financial institutions or even improve financial system as whole.

2024-05-26 Human first

I create every solution with concentration on human being, on concentration of our needs and ability to build in the case we want to build and ability to destroy if we feel to destroy.

I'm trying to find a solution that will basically focus on a human being as in the center of every financial solution. Always understand if it is bringing in the value, or if it is adding to the aims and goals that the consumer is having. So it also applies in terms of credit scoring or in terms of a debt collection making sure that even we propose the solution or we looked through the data and try to analyze it. In the end of the day it brings the value to the consumer so he or she can grow. Life finds not easy to adopt but it it evolves around a very rigid mathematical model. Collection and IT prediction and applying it to the life as it goes and it comes now putting this in consideration I would like to develop different models that are looking on the life itself and that will be able to predict what is the best way or the best model how to predict short-term long-term medium term future vidiability also to define potential a weak point or potential places where this plan is being weak.

How could such a solution look like? first and foremost we have to define the data that we are going to monitor through the process of the communication the data obtaining and evaluation and the ability to return those data and turn it to the potential cash form once we do have those data and we have collected enough data points that will allow us to decrease the R square we will be able to start to calculate not only the positive but also the negative scoring 

2024-05-25 Key, key, key on profitability in developed market

If you are considering to make it on a developed market bring forward following:

a) am I good in analyzing what makes me money?

b) am I able to decrease the amount of workforce used in my processes and where is the limit?

c) what is my competition currently charging for the service and how can I charge more

d) will my potential customers trust me be able to give me more business

e) am I able to fail and learn?

f) how many employees I need and for how much time a week?

g) can I setup a good compliance structure and setup so it does not hurt me later?

i) am I able to meet with customers and able to fly?

j) how much money I have to invest for marketing and self development

k) does family support me

It is possible to succeed. It needs to utilize the resources better than current competition and produce outcome less risky and with higher value added. It takes the village, but that village is nice and full of satisfaction.

God bless us all

2024-05-25 Opening a business in US

Do you want to open a profitable business in USA?

1. Make sure you use any software you have control over ... so you can optimize your processed

2. Make sure you get paid for improved quality and you can measure it yourself

3. Be prepared to have an attorney to protect you

4. Be sure you utilize your resorces and makde sure you see a short term and long term incured costs

5. Travel, travel and travel