Sunday, January 19, 2020

2019-01-19 Portoflio performance challenge in USA (Jan update)

Loan portoflio performance is dependent on the initial underwriting policy of each lender and the ability of the lender to keep track of the portfolio even after it had been underwritten. Where the underwriting process might be influenced by varios approaches to detect scam, to identify ability to repay the loan or even predict the future behavior of the borrower it is getting more challenging to confirm the performance in time, one the loan had been provided especially in terms of longer loans, as predictability of behaviors is time dependent and economic cycle dependent. 

The latter is being a current position in United States. Economy is growing and long forgotten are years 2009-2011 with challening economics and performance of the portoflios. We can even observe loans being unpaid for years being repaid and people looking forward to bright future. Same on a side of underwriters, statistical models or sales volume.

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