Sunday, July 15, 2018

2018-07-16 return over rating (average)



This table shows average returns (per annum) on the corporate bonds depending on the rating of the bonds for 10 years maturity. 


These numbers are critical, as they represent the "average" expectation of the investor (in US, we might adjust it for other markets) to invest to corporate bond for our calculation once issuing it / planning the cash flow of any certain project.

These numbers also might be used as "litmus paper" for current issuance of corporate bonds, where they stand, why they are prices as they are and what might be predicted in the future.

Orange part - still within investment grade of the bonds. Under orange part - junk bonds. 
Ratings / probability of default in 1 year / probability of default in 3 years


BBB    0.3345%  /      1.00%
  BB     2.5652%  /      7.5%
    B     7.1682%  /    20.00%
CCC  15.8567%  /   40.00% 
   CC  29.5270%  /   65.00%  
     C   63.1597%  /   95.00%

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