Being in India is these days very hard.
People, even having savings, could bot utilize them to buy anything. 80% of economy is cash based. And from this 80% it is estimated that 80% was in 1000 and 500 banknotes. Therefore 64% of all Monetary M0 is gone. 64%!
Please understand.
Normal bank charging 10% interest rate will need to turn over by this step just lost 640% of the cash flow!
This is a huge step.
"Election in United states on 8th of November 2016 (Tuesday) will not be a catastrophe nor a think that will inmediately increase the price of bread": my opinion. "It will not effecting us inmediately in normal life change the way we already see and will see the American economy in medium term and therefore change the life of real people in medium term too." The most dangerous about this is a time lag between cause and effect. It is like an invasion of Russian soldiers to Crimea. No effect on Russians inmediately, but now after 2 years we sense normal Russian people are suffering. And I am brave enough to say it is 50% caused by the invasion. (Suffering I define as a difference between a life style before and after invasion, on behalf my epirical research in Russia and analysing Russian data).
My prediction, in this moment is following:
It will be rather good for US and world if Trump wins in long term(4-..). I predict his win.
In short term (0-0.5 year) it is without dramatic influence. In medium term (0.5-4 years)
I expect:
Short term:
Trump will analyse the problems with his business thinking. Will try to be on as many meetings as possible and listen and understand. He will ask a few people to leave within his circle inmediately. Especially people appear to be dummy on a first sight. People not being able to asnwer a simple question. And of course people he can allow to fire. That will, to certain point, be a suprise. But not a big game changer. He will also seek for a people on his side. I am afraid his team is not too strong now.
Medium term:
It will be seen the change of the game in US. There is a risk of Dallas 1960's. Chinese economy in fall, USD controlling exchange rate and keeping it low. Unemployment rate up, especially from former government employees. Normal business people maybe poorer in comparison with the world, but with more jobs. Stronger export of less sophisticated services/goods. Stronger police control within US. More volatility on market, less spending and therefore slowing internetional economy.
Long term:
Allies more focusing on covering their costs on the protection/army. Russia knowing his borders and getting out of Ukraine, but staying in Crimea. China loosing position in the region and globally. US stronger. Euro to US attacking 1,2 with additional pressure on south nations like Greece.
Many of the companies would like to get to Singapore or start their business in Singapore as they seek for funding. There is now the bug amount of opportunities for such seekers. It will incure some cost to stay in Singapore for 6 month to get the real feeling of the market, so u need to be ready to finance that. We talk about 30.000 SGD plus (20.000 EUR).
Startup to small company - accelerators...seek an oportunity there
SME - lawyers, private equity companies, venture capitalists
Large corporates - funds, banks.
Important is to prepare financial numbers and introduction of your business. Financial numbers need to focus on one simple thing, especially for SME, startup and small companies. How will you generate sales. Forget now on the focus on the costs. Tell the people how will u generate sales.
Banking in Singapore for foreigners works much harder than you would expect. If you have experience from Hong Kong for example you would be surprised by amount of data bank would like like to gather. Additionally the big surprise is once you provide all the information bank will probably get lost in it and disapprove your application. Just for the sake of complexity. That is really against all what I did go trough once I was a banker. I was always interested to know as much as possible about my client and once the client did dare to share I did feel comfortable and was keen to make business. Regulation nowadays did get just to the point, where truth is much less desirable than simple solution. Just for sake of we have done what regulation did ask us to be done. Banks are, therefore, very weak. They open enormous space for shadow banking, for the same banks not following all the regulation. As it is getting to the point where deposit on account has negative interest rate but to open bank account is super hard. How u can do business that way?
It is possible, that once you try to raise up cash for your company you will meet a suspicious case. Something like "send me 10% upfront and than I will send you my investment to your company". And also something like "do it quickly". Even company could be registered only for few months and proclaiming it has hundreds of millions on account and there will be no problem for that company to invest. That all is a red flag. You need to sense, that there is much better way to invest money for anybody, than send it randomly to any company it meets. Is there a way to protect ourself agains such a threats? I believe it is. Firstly calm down. Get a nice walk, read the things you got over emails you got, communication you did hold.
If you feel you would like to proceed start to use your friends, bank, embassy, even hire a company to do due diligence or investigation.
Once there is something super easy, just send me 10% I will send you my money it is a red flag!
Social networking in SG is pretty exciting. U may forget about meeting other people to discuss weather or find talk about travelling. I am afraid that travelling is no normal here, that nobody considers it as something special. Only if you have special, exciting memories. If you did nice deal, wanna invest in new country.
What kind of deals?
Wanna buy a bank in Cambodia?
How to get banking licence?
What is normal NPL to achieve?
How to decrease or hedge the risks?
What markets grow or fall?
Why people need money and what they do with it?
Exciting moments I can say ....
